SportsLine's model simulated Tuesday's Toledo Rockets vs. Central Michigan Chippewas MACtion matchup 10,000 times

The Rockets are 3-2 in MAC play, with their three wins coming by an average of six points. They rank 92nd nationally in net Success Rate despite playing the 127th-ranked strength of schedule. They also don’t profile as a solid favorite to back with the 130th-ranked rushing offense by EPA per Play.

Tucker Gleason was the star on offense for Toledo, finishing with 13-of-23 for 123 yards, a passing touchdown, while also leading the team with 66 yards and two rushing scores on just eight carries. He was replaced in the fourth quarter by backup QB John Alan Richter.