Opinion
The 2024 Election polls got close to the mark. That's the best we can expect.
You don’t have to take my word for it. Let’s compare the average of pre-election polls — computed by FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics — to the latest results in swing states where NBC News has projected a winner. We’ve proven that we can get close to the mark — which is the best we can reasonably expect from polling.
Election Day 2024 live results: Polls now closed in more than half the states
ABC News is projecting that Trump is expected to win Indiana’s 11 electoral votes. That is not a surprise. In previous elections, he won the state by 57% to 38% over Clinton in 2016, and 55 to 32 over Biden in 2020.
Who's winning in the polls on Election Day? What to know about Harris-Trump race in NC, US
N.C. is a key swing state in the race for president. Here's what final rounds of polls are predicting on Election Day.
Who's leading in the US presidential polls? See Trump, Harris odds for Election Day 2024
National polls indicate a tight presidential race on Election Day. How accurate are the polls, and when will we know who won?
Did the US election polls fail?
For much of the 2024 US presidential campaign, polls and pundits rated the race too close to call. Then Donald Trump delivered a commanding victory over Kamala Harris, winning at least five battleground states,
Election Day: Polls close, AP calls Ohio for Trump
Trump wins Ohio Republican Donald Trump carried Ohio for a third time on Tuesday, according to the Associated Press, defeating Democratic nominee Kamala Harris to capture the state's 17 electoral votes.
Final Polls Show Kamala Harris' Chances of Winning Election vs Donald Trump
According to pollster Nate Silver 's forecast, Vice President Kamala Harris now has a 50 percent chance of winning the Electoral College to former President Donald Trump 's 49.6 percent. It also notes ...
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Biden Pulls Ahead of Trump in FiveThirtyEight Average of Polls For First Time in Months
President Joe Biden pulled ahead of former President Donald Trump in FiveThirtyEight’s latest average of polls with the president leading in the last five national polls measured. Biden posted ...
538's final forecasts for the 2024 election
Through Monday, Nov. 4, 83 million Americans had already cast their ballots in the 2024 election. On Tuesday, Nov. 5 — Election Day — millions more will join them.
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Who is currently leading in the presidential polls? See the latest Harris-Trump polls
Just before Election Day, national polls indicate a tight presidential race. How accurate are the polls, and when will we ...
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Who’s ahead in the California 40th District House
Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major ... which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.
What polls got right and wrong about the 2024 presidential election
Polls are almost always at least a bit off. Some of that is due to imperfect assumptions about what the likely voter ...
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How to read political polls in 2024
How can two polls say two different things? And can you even trust polls, anyway? Here at 538, we cover polls year-round, so we'd like to share with you some tips we've learned over the years ...
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Who’s ahead in the California 13th District House
Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major ... which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.
2024 polls were accurate but still underestimated Trump
That's why we do things like publish ratings of pollster accuracy and transparency and make complex election forecasting ...